The intelligence layer for MMA
Call the finish.
One model prices the whole fight — who wins, how it ends, when it happens — and flags where the odds are wrong.
A flat $100 on each of the backtest’s 644 bets returned +$9,160 since 2023 (+14.2% ROI) — not a guarantee, and tracked live in public from UFC 329.
Our model picks Holloway by decision.
Full read: method, round, and the price we’d take →
The record is public
full ledger →Walk-forward moneyline backtest, 2023–2026 — trained on the past, bet forward on unseen fights, no look-ahead.
Dollar figures are the backtest’s +91.6 units at a flat $100 per bet — scale to your own stake. From UFC 329 the record runs live: every official play is hash-committed before the card and graded in public after — wins, losses, and the closing line we beat or didn’t. Backtested, not a guarantee of future results. How it works →
The whole fight, not just a winner
Everyone posts a win percent. The model prices the full outcome distribution — live numbers below are McGregor vs Holloway.
Calibrated win probability, not vibes — graded against results every card.
Method probabilities for every fight — the finish is the product.
Round-by-round finish hazard — 63% chance this one ends early.
Every fight gets this read, free. See the full McGregor vs Holloway breakdown →
Where the odds are wrong
We hold two independent estimates of every price — the model’s calibrated probability and the no-vig fair implied by the sharpest books. When a posted price is materially off both, that’s a play.
Every official play is published with its price, hash-committed before lock, and graded in the public ledger after — free during launch. See every edge on this card →
The site proves it. Members get it first.
Everything that proves the model stays free forever: predictions for every fight, the methodology, and the public ledger where every official play is graded after the card.
Founding members buy speed. The official plays land in your inbox before lock — the pick, the price, the book, the stake — while the public sees only the sha256 hash until the card is over. Verify the reveal against the hash yourself; the ledger can’t be rewritten.
Why a cap: the edge has capacity. Soft opening prices don’t stay soft when a crowd hits them — 50 members is the number the edge supports. Backtested and publicly graded, never guaranteed. 21+, bet only what you can afford.
Checkout opens before UFC 329 — the list gets first claim on the 50 spots.
Not ready? The public record updates after every card — watch it before you pay for it.
Latest analysis
all posts →Fight-week reads on this card — predictions, breakdowns, and where the odds are wrong.